[SMM Analysis] China Turns to Africa for Ore Supply in First 7 Months of 2025, Indonesian Exports Recover but Concerns Remain

In terms of tin ore imports, China imported a cumulative 69,119 mt in physical content from January to July, marking a 34.8% YoY decline from 106,000 mt in the same period last year. Imports from Myanmar plummeted to just 14,157 mt in physical content, with a sharp YoY decline of 77.1%. As a key tin ore supplier to China, Myanmar's significant production drop has substantially impacted China's tin ore supply structure. In contrast, supply from Africa surged, reaching 40,650 mt in physical content from January to July, up 44.4% YoY from 28,160 mt, becoming a major incremental source for China's tin ore imports.

For refined tin trade, China's tin imports in July stood at 2,167 mt, up 21% MoM and 158% YoY, while exports totaled 1,673 mt, down 15% MoM and 4% YoY.

In Indonesia, the world's largest refined tin exporter, refined tin exports in July 2025 reached 3,790 mt, up 11.5% YoY but down 13.9% MoM. A total of 18 smelters exported that month, with shipments showing a clear hierarchical distribution: 4 smelters shipped 300-500 mt, 5 shipped 200-300 mt, and 9 shipped below 200 mt. By export market, shipments to China dropped 51% MoM to 540.7 mt, while those to Singapore rose 21% MoM and to India increased 26.9% MoM to 477.5 mt. From January to July 2025, Indonesia's cumulative refined tin exports surged 63.1% YoY to 29,490 mt, indicating a gradual recovery in its global supply capability.

Data reveals a significant adjustment in the global tin market's supply-demand structure. Myanmar's sharp supply contraction has directly driven China to seek alternative resources in Africa, which has become a key incremental source for China's tin ore imports, reshaping the global supply landscape.

On the refined tin front, Indonesia's exports are gradually recovering, with cumulative January-July exports surging YoY, providing crucial support to global supply. However, its exports to China declined MoM, indicating a slight shift in market focus. Meanwhile, China's own refined tin imports showed strong YoY growth, reflecting positive domestic demand signals.

Notably, uncertainties remain in Indonesia's tin supply. The government plans to shorten the RKAB (Work Plan and Budget) approval cycle from triennial to annual, requiring companies to resubmit documents by October 2025. Additionally, a top-tier Indonesian enterprise's mining license remains under modification. These dual factors are expected to further impact actual tin ingot export volumes in August, potentially disrupting short-term global refined tin supply stability. Overall, both supply and demand in the current tin market are adapting to a new equilibrium. Going forward, it will be necessary to continuously monitor the progress of mine development, policy adjustments in major exporting countries, and changes in consumption demand for their further impact on the market.